Now that Israel gave Hezbollah everything it wanted for 2 dead bodies and a box of various body parts of other soldiers, other groups are taking the hint.  Can anyone give me one reason Hamas still has to keep Gilad alive?  Give up?  Then you are on the money. Keeping him alive or not is immaterial from this point on.  Israel will negotiate for the live soldier or his body and it’s all the same to Hamas…in the end, they will get many prisoners with blood on their hands….maybe everyone they are asking for.

Oh, and Hezbollah isn’t done trying to kidnap soliders either.  There’s still the matter of Ghajar and the Sheeba Farms/Mt. Dov, certified by the UN as part of Israel until they figure out a way to hand it back to Syria, who the UN says it belongs to.  And even if Israel gets out of that quagmire, there is still the matter of 7 Shiite villages abandoned in the Israeli War of Independence.   It will never end.  There will always be some other problem or pretext for groups like these to attack Israel, having nothing to do with certified UN boundaries or whatever.  The UN is no help…they already caved on their own certified blue stamp withdrawal line (UN 425) and are trying to get Israel to give back the Sheeba farms to Lebanon.  Ridiculous.

Caving in to demand after demand from these organizations wont help at at all.  a new policy is needed if Israel is going to deter attacks such as these.  Only making the price unbearable for these terror groups will stop the cross-border raids.  Hamas has claimed Shalit is an asset.  Turn him into a liability.   Shut off the water in Gaza and stop shipments for a few days.  The IAF can patrol against the Qassams and sure, some of them will hit Israel, but I bet you it wont be a week before he’s out of there.  Let the Gazans complain to their elected officials to remove Shalit so they can survive.

As for Hezbollah, the mistake that led to this whole resolution last week was a) not making a deal when the asking price as less and b) NOT sending in the army early and often.  Sure Israel destroyed parts of Lebanon, but with the infusion of Iranian capital, everything is being rebuilt, even if the economy there is still recovering.  The ONLY thing that will convince Hezbollah, it seems, is much greater force than Israel used last time.  If they were surprised Israel attacked the last time, if another such raid occurs, they should make Lebanon look like the moon.  Israel will take its punches from the missiles launched from the north, sure, but they must launch a strike that will take Lebanon years to recover from.  Its the only way to ensure the focus in the north remains on rebuilding the tatters of their country and not petty raids southward.

The price for these attacks must be unbearable.  And please Israel, stop making bum deals that encourage these types of things in the first place.

I don’t know about you, but I’m getting sick of the pass Hamas seems to be getting in terms of all their transgressions against a cease-fire THEY were pushing for so long. I agree that they can’t be everywhere at all times and no one can stop lone people. I don’t actually think they are letting people fire rockets and shoot…not this time anyway as its not in their interest to have this ‘period of calm’ fall apart. However, they better be able to clamp down on this more, or they are going to have renewed Israeli action on their hands…Shalit threats or not.

And in regards to threatening not to negotiate for Shalit anymore, I actually read a decent opinion piece the other day about other options Israel may have to force the hands of Hamas to be a little more reasonable. If Shalit cant see the light of day, neither should Israel’s prisoners. Right now these guys get press conferences, conjugal visits, etc. All that should end. Put these guys in a black hole and let the families address their complaints to their heroes in Gaza. If Israel cant get them to be more reasonable, maybe their own kind can.

One of these days, perhaps the government there will stop being so ‘practical’, grow a spine and play dirty like their enemies. Israel doesn’t have to sink to their level, but there are levers on their side to pull and screws to be tightened.

Well, there needs to be some penalty for breaking the truce, so Israel decided to close the borders for a short time, post-rocket launchings into sovereign Israeli territory. Hamas, to their credit, at least seemed to be taking the truce somewhat seriously, posting 1000 militia-men all over Gaza to watch the ‘troublemakers’ in Islamic Jihad and Fatah and make sure no more sunflower seed merchants fired rockets into Israel.

Now of course comes the clincher. Hamas, still tired of actually having to be held responsible as governments usually are, decided they will not be showing up to the Shalit negotiations in Cairo and will pass no more signs of life on unless Israel is ’serious’ and opens up the border. Violations from their side, a measured Israeli response and yet more nonsense from the non-government government of the Gaza Fakestinians. Did the situation even have to reach this point where a human life is being bargained over like a sack of apples?

I was perusing the news as I always do and come across a general article on this particular story. The best parts of these news articles are usually the comments section where people display their knowledge, or lack of it, to everyone. Again, I found the most rational post come from Terry in Eilat (post #9). Hope I’m not stepping on anyones toes reposting it, but its very worth reading. His first comment (#3) was that this truce is BS to save the current government’s ass. A different poster asked what he’d do to obtain Shalit’s release. Here was his reply:

The time to obtain Shalit’s release was immediately after the kidnapping. An immediate harsh response was called for. The border should have been sealed & all traffic stopped. Electricity should have been cut off on the same day. Gaza infrastructure should have been targeted & destroyed. The homes of Hamas leaders should have been bombed.

Our official policy should have been that he must be released unconditionally or we continue the above measures. This was the best chance for his release.

Now, two years have passed. Everything we have done since then has only shown weakness & indecision. The truce without the release of Shalit made our position even weaker. The final straw was the agreement with Hezbollah which only demonstrated to all that our gov’t. will give in to any demand, no matter how unreasonable. Our gov’t. has made it plain that these deals, the truce, etc. is in their interest (even though not in the country’s interest).

All of the media attention, the interviews with the families, etc. has convinced our adversaries that the pressure is on Olmert to deliver – that he has more to lose than they do (which is not necessarily the case in reality).

Of course, today is today & what we should have done no longer matters, except to illustrate the ineptness of our leaders.

What would I do today? This is the part few will like.

I would end the negotiations completely. I would announce that the State of Israel cannot decide national policy based on one captive. No prisoners will be released. Not one.
At the same time, I would announce that no truce is possible without Shalit’s release. Without fanfare or threats or any announcement at all, officially, I would begin moving troops to the Gaza border area.

At the same time, I would begin reducing electricity supplies & fuel by say 5% a week. The border crossings would only be open one day a week for food aid only.

Then, I would wait – with no speeches, no threats, nothing.

If Kassams or morters are fired at us, I would respond by targeting Hamas military installations, offices, & other Hamas assets.

If Kassam fire & other attacks escalate, then our attacks would similarly escalate.
If at the end of say 6 weeks, the Egyptians could not secure the release of Shalit (without our participation), then we should begin targeting every Hamas leader we can locate & begin incursions deep into Gaza to destroy Hamas infrastructure & inflict as many casualties as possible.

Thats my answer.

Terry, Eliat, Israel (07.04.08)

Seriously, we need to get this guy elected Prime Minister of Israel. Or at least Defense Minister. I really wish he would start his own blog, but in the meantime, I will try to spread his wisdom to you here because not everyone reads all the news I do.

I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read an analysis on Haaretz condemning this swap. ‘Capitualtion to Blackmail by terrorists’. This from the newspaper that is full of ‘intellectuals’ who want to slice and dice Israel up and serve it up as an entree to the Fakestinians. Amazing. Haaretz is usually one of the first publications to suggest Israel roll over and play dead. This was one of the few intelligent pieces I have read on there in a while. Usually I need to reach for some Maalox.

Of course my favorite punching bag at Ynet, Yair Lapid, decided to post his asinine junk online again. In short, it’s a bunch of garbage about how we couldnt have done things any other way and there are no winners and losers here. It just ‘is’. We gave away killers in the past, so there is precendent and we should do it again to get the soldiers bodies back.

Well, excuse me Yair, but just because mistakes were made in the past doesn’t mean they should be repeated. Like a broken record, I have been saying that giving into all of Hezbollah’s demands will only embolden them and other groups to kidnap more soldiers/civilians and to raise the stakes in terms of what it will cost Israel to get on of them back. There is no longer a reason for these groups to keep hostages alive. They can be murdered on the spot and Israel will still give them everything they want for their corpse.

Take a look at this article today in Jpost. It’s starting already. In addtion, all these LIVE prisoners Hezbollah gets in return will be paraded around Beirut and ‘victory’ will be declared and this WILL be believed by everyone watching. Israel caved in to all of Hezbollah’s demands. No winners? My ass, Lapid.

I didn’t like this deal from the outset and everything I posited is coming to fruition. Rather than crow about foresight, I hate being right about this. Maybe it is time for that antacid.

Mortars continue to rain down

Yes, they admonished the truce-breakers the other day, but have they done anything to stop it?  Not only are they the elected goverment, of Gaza, but they are supposedly the supreme power there that no one dare cross.  Hell, I thought they deposed Fatah just a year ago, and quite easily if I recall.  Of course this leads to 2 conclusions:

1) They either aren’t as all powerful as they or anyone else thinks, or

2) This is being dont with their tacit approval.

Either way, and panderer or not, Livni is right.  The more Israel ignores these violations, the more they will be tested by more Qassams and mortars in this alleged ‘period of calm’.  If Israeli Hellfire missiles were being launched into ‘open areas’ now, you can be sure Hamas would call an end to this “cease-fire”.  The sealing of the crossings is a good start, despite the whining from Gaza.  More needs to be done, and if Hamas wont do the job, Israel will do it for them while the world simply watches.

And I thought it was going to be a nice Friday.

…the ‘truce’ will be short lived. Someone in Gaza won’t be able to stop themselves from firing a Qassam or a GRAD rocket that will hurt or kill an Israeli or a foreign worker.

OK, no body died yet, but its just a matter of time before damage is done to something other than property.

Now Hamas have turned into whiners, accusing Israel of breaking the cease-fire by closing the Gaza crossings for the last 2 days in response to violations emanating from Gaza. These clowns want it both ways. Islamic Jihad are the ones launching the rockets claiming violations in the ‘West-Bank’ which is NOT covered by this agreement with Hamas. Hamas washes their hands of it saying that they aren’t Israel’s police force. So, Israel closed the crossings instead of launching counter-strikes. No, thats not the call of the muezzin you hear from Gaza. Cue the whining.

I thought the whole point of this cease-fire was that any and all violence out of Gaza would come to a halt and Israel would stop their retaliation in Gaza and open the crossings. Israel lived up to its end, so why can’t Hamas? If Hamas is the elected government in Gaza, should they not hearken to the spirit of the agreement if not the letter? Does anyone think that if Israelis unaffiliated with the IDF starting launching projectiles into Beit Hanoun, that Hamas would accept Israel telling them they aren’t Hamas’ police force? Please! These whiners want a one way cease-fire that can be violated without repercussions.

This was a bad deal in the first place and it’s only delaying the inevitable foray into Gaza to put an end to this nonsense. About the only good thing to come out of the cease-fire was the residents of Sderot catching a few days rest from the falling rockets, but that appears over, sadly.

Most of the opinion pieces I have read till now have seemed more neutral or supportive of the deals. ‘Israel must bring it’s sons home at any price’, has been the drumbeat. Well, it appears that some doubts are arising over whether the public really stands to benefit from the proposed swaps as they stand or if they hurt Israel’s standing for the future should there be again a need for negotiations of this nature.

Read here and here

This is the kind of stuff you hate being right about, but if Israel is held to the will of these families and make a terrible deal (again), it will only encourage future bad deals as a result of more kidnappings.

There is an apparent push by the IDF Chief Rabbi to declare the soldiers missing in action and dead. Why this comes up right now seems to be a mystery as there has been plenty of time to do so beforehand. My guess? Israel didn’t want to prejudice the negotiations with Hizbullah and set the bar too low in terms of what Nasrallah would ask as his price for their return. At least if they gave Nasrallah hope, Israel might have hope to regain their stolen sons.

But, in the entire time since the kidnapping and the war, there has been ZERO sign of life from Regev or Goldwasser. Not a peep. No letters. No videotapes. No Red Cross visits. Nothing. Unless everyone is keeping their lips glued for the sake of this ‘deal’, there is no reason to believe they are alive. They were mortally injured upon their capture, so there is no reason to assume they got medical care immediately. Hamas may be similar scum, but at least they occasionally pass some signs of life regarding Shalit so there is reason to think about giving them what they want. This latest musing about declaring them dead is a pressure tactic to get Hizbullah to show something of value or get less in return. Why give Kuntar back for a box of bones?

With all due respect to the Goldwasser and Regev family, soldiers get lost in war. War is never fair and never without pain. But the asking price for their likely dead sons is too high and Israel should not pay such steep prices so as to encourage further kidnappings. There is a law of diminishing returns here and Israel has to look out for the rest of it’s soldiers and citizens who haven’t been kidnapped and not make deals that encourage future snatchings. Not leaving a solider on the field is a noble sentiment, but in practice it’s unrealistic. All soldiers go into battle knowing they may not come back alive. Some don’t come back at all. It’s just the way of things. Maybe someday when there is actual peace (in the year 9000) everyone can trade back everyones remains. Today isn’t that day.

If the soldiers are alive, I will be among those celebrating their return, even for a scumbag like Kuntar. But whoever is pulling this tactic to pressure Hizullah is smart. Nasrallah needs Kuntar back for PR reasons, so Israel twisting his arm a little bit is smart. Get him to pony up live soldiers or risk having the deal fail and Kuntar still rotting in jail. I’m OK with that.

Ah, sweet surrender. No, not to love or to the beautiful weather we’ve been having. This is what Hamas must be thinking today now that the Defense Minister Ehud Barak seems to have caved on pretty much everything Hamas demanded. Israel basically asked them to “pretty please” not smuggle in arms, and agreed to hand back most of the 450 prisoners Hamas has been demanding, many with blood on their hands. Israel will also have to stop monitoring the Rafah crossing. Egypt will. I’m sure they’ll do as good a job at that as they have preventing smuggling.

Quiet is supposed to come first and if the truce holds, I can’t imagine Gilad Shalit won’t come back for those 450 scumbags. To be fair, since we are all not a fly on the wall to all the security discussions, perhaps after almost 2 years of deliberation, this is the ONLY way to get Shalit back safely.

Yes, I’m sure that those 450 prisoners will return to their bombing ways. But, the ‘truce’ will be short lived. Someone in Gaza won’t be able to stop themselves from firing a Qassam or a GRAD rocket that will hurt or kill an Israeli or a foreign worker. I can’t image at least some of the murderers won’t meet their end in a ‘work accident’ or in a fireball sent to them courtesy of the IDF. They wont be returning to Gaza to become Rhodes scholars, that’s for sure.

Like I said yesterday, this is a tough corner of the earth, and some of these deals turn your stomach, but I guess you do what you have to do to gain the release of your soldiers. It really is like watching a horror movie sometimes.

“The Beit Lahiya massacre was caused by an Israeli strike that targeted a Qassam leader,” Hamas said in a statement, referring to its armed wing.

An IDF spokeswoman denied any Israeli involvement.

“It was not related to the IDF. There were no IDF operations. It was an internal explosion,” an IDF spokeswoman said in Tel Aviv.

You read these quotes every time there’s a ‘work accident’, and they get picked up immediately by all the news services. If it rained in Gaza, it’d be blamed on Israeli tank shells destroying ‘Palestinian’ clouds.

And of course, what do we find out today? Hamas themselves admit that it was an explosion while preparing for a ’special mission’ (read: Dead Jews), and the missile salvo was intended to be a ‘distraction’ while they blew holes in the security fence. And STILL the government is looking at a truce rather than cleaning up in Gaza. It’s enough to make you sick.