What is Israel getting in return? Well, if you believe the reports from the Lebanese media, at least one body and possibly one live soldier (who can tell? Nasrallah isn’t saying), the bodies or body parts of other Israeli soldiers killed in the war and an incomplete report on the fate of Ron Arad. Can anybody else see how lopsided this deal is?

Firstly, and I know this has been beaten to death, but why would Israel give up live prisoners for just body parts and bodies? I do understand the strong Israeli sentiment for not leaving comrades on the field and this deal hopefully sets the counter to even. Other than Ron Arad, who’s fate is unknown, Israel gets to put to rest all their dead, giving closure to the families and a chance to truly mourn and move on. Still, its hard to stomach sending a vile animal like Kuntar free in order to get this done. Still, the man spent almost 30 years in prison for his crimes, and I take some solace that he might have to live in hiding like Nasrallah because there will still be a target on him. I hope he never knows a day of peace…always looking over his shoulder wondering when death will take him.

Also, since the first part of the swap, the report on Ron Arad, was incomplete I wonder what the rush was get the deal done regardless? Would the whole swap have fallen through if Israel pushed back? I don’t know, and likely we all never will. My thinking is too much momentum had built up to risk having this deal fall through. I do believe though that Nasrallah needed this to happen more than Israel (to bolster his standing, which has fallen in recent months) so I cant see why Israel wouldn’t use that as leverage.

In Lebanon, there will only be celebrations for the return of their imprisoned. Honors and accolades will be heaped on the Hezbollah fighters and there will be much happiness. The only absurdity I hope isn’t lost on the world is that Kuntar will be the most honored. A man so brave he shot a father, execution style, in front of his 4 year old daughter and then crushed her skull with a rifle butt against a rock by the beach. This is who Lebanon chooses to honor as a hero. All who celebrate are as despicable as he is. They all deserve each other.

We all know Nasrallah will use this as a podium to declare victory against Israel again. And in Arab eyes, he will be seen victorious. Never mind he put much of Lebanon in ruin. With the reconfiguration of the government there and now this, Hezbollah is on a roll. Lets hope they don’t get too big for their britches and decide to attack Israel again.

For better or for worse (for worse), what’s done is done, and at 9am tomorrow, Israel time, this swap will take place. I only hope that this is the end of every ass Israel has to kiss to get their boys back. Oh wait!! I forgot about the ass kissing they will need to do to get Gilad Shalit back. And the terrible deal they will need to make as well. The precedent has already been set by this bad deal. My only hope is that at some point, someones will put the brakes on this runaway idiocy and do something to turn the rules of the game back in Israel’s favor.

First, the known problem.  Hezbollah has been rearming via Syria almost since the war ended 2 years ago.  After the war, UNSCR 1701was supposed to not only prevent Hezbollah from deploying south of the Litani River, but also the re-armament of the organization.  They had 13000 missiles with which to fire back in 2006.  The new figure today puts it at 40000+ short and medium range missiles.  Not to mention of course that there is also evidence of about 2500 Hezbollah fighters IN UNIFORM south of the Litani River.  Wasn’t this UN mandate that was rushed to a vote, forced more on Israel than on Lebanon, supposed to prevent all this.  No one expected perfection, but a tripling of the arsenal?  And armed uniformed fighters flouting the resolution?  Forget the UN….they should be called the IN.  INcapable of doing anything properly and INeffective at executing their own madate.  INcompetant.  Feel free to throw in your own.  This is a powderkeg thats going to boil over @ some point.

Then, of course, Iran decided to flex it’s might today by launching 9 medium range missiles in a war games test.  This was of course as a warning both the United States and Israel not to attack as Israel and Western Europe and Iraq are all within range of their arms.  The regime there also stated that their first target is Tel-Aviv before they even start of the American targets.  What a bunch of sweethearts.  This is mostly irrelevant as the US and Iran are in secret talks to create some sort of deal for oil.

I’m not sure what Israel can really do to prevent any of this.  The IDF, and Israel at large, seems to have lost it’s aura of invincibility and it’s foes are becoming more brazen in their desires to really eliminate Israel through rockets and possibly nerve agents along with other terror attacks to sap it’s strength.  I don’t know what can be done to take the battle to the enemy, but I hope someone in Israel figures it out soon because, though the economy there continues to grow at a dizzying pace, it can all come apart quickly without a solution to the next missile war.

While it will relieve some of the sadness over having lost these 2 soldiers, this is still a lopsided deal by any measure and does Israel more harm than good in the long run. Yes, I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but the short term ‘benefits’ of this deal will be outweighed by the heartache later when soldiers are executed rather than captured; their body parts to be quibbled over for this or that demand.

The real focus should be on vigilence and protecting against these type of attacks in the first place, not encouraging the terrorists by showing them that no demand is too outrageous. In this case, the risk/reward is very high for them because the state of being of the captured matters little. I certainly hope in the future swaps of this nature will be only bodies for bodies and life for life. Unfortunately I don’t know that Israel can un-ring the bell and lower the raised expectations of every 2 bit murderer in the immediate vicinity. The only thing that will do that is make the costs to the enemy too much to bear and deter them from even considering this as an option. I dont put out much hope for that with the current ‘leaders’.

I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read an analysis on Haaretz condemning this swap. ‘Capitualtion to Blackmail by terrorists’. This from the newspaper that is full of ‘intellectuals’ who want to slice and dice Israel up and serve it up as an entree to the Fakestinians. Amazing. Haaretz is usually one of the first publications to suggest Israel roll over and play dead. This was one of the few intelligent pieces I have read on there in a while. Usually I need to reach for some Maalox.

Of course my favorite punching bag at Ynet, Yair Lapid, decided to post his asinine junk online again. In short, it’s a bunch of garbage about how we couldnt have done things any other way and there are no winners and losers here. It just ‘is’. We gave away killers in the past, so there is precendent and we should do it again to get the soldiers bodies back.

Well, excuse me Yair, but just because mistakes were made in the past doesn’t mean they should be repeated. Like a broken record, I have been saying that giving into all of Hezbollah’s demands will only embolden them and other groups to kidnap more soldiers/civilians and to raise the stakes in terms of what it will cost Israel to get on of them back. There is no longer a reason for these groups to keep hostages alive. They can be murdered on the spot and Israel will still give them everything they want for their corpse.

Take a look at this article today in Jpost. It’s starting already. In addtion, all these LIVE prisoners Hezbollah gets in return will be paraded around Beirut and ‘victory’ will be declared and this WILL be believed by everyone watching. Israel caved in to all of Hezbollah’s demands. No winners? My ass, Lapid.

I didn’t like this deal from the outset and everything I posited is coming to fruition. Rather than crow about foresight, I hate being right about this. Maybe it is time for that antacid.

A couple of thoughts:

1) This seems to be a very steep price to pay if they aren’t alive. And I don’t see how this won’t encourage more kidnappings in the future

2) I don’t see why Hamas wouldn’t raise its already nutty demands for Shalit even more. It seems Israel will pay ANY price, even insanely high ones. It’s a noble sentiment, but it’s got to run up against the law of diminishing returns at some point, no?

3) I still think this is a bad deal. At least we know Shalit’s alive so I can see giving more for him than Kuntar and everything else for 2 corpses.

I’m sure everyone will be disgusted to see Kuntar and the other live fighters and Fakestinians paraded around Beirut as heroes. Look who Lebanon honors…a child killer….yay!! Israel, by contrast, will likely be host to 2 more state funerals. I hope this sad chapter is the beginning of healing for the Regev and Goldwasser families and for everyone affected by this tragedy.

While the IDF Chief Gabi Ashkenazi and Olmert argue about delaying the process of declaring Eldad and Ehud dead, the parents of the families  are pressing the government to make a deal at any cost.  Is it any wonder Nasrallah is slamming Israel on the other end to bumble into a bad deal?  “Make the deal now as the asking price isn’t going down.  We’ll only ask for more in the future”.

Not that Israel needs to set any more bad examples when it comes to making lopsided deals, but do you think Hamas won’t pick up on this and increase their demands already ludicrous demands for Shalit further?  It’s happening already.  I’m going to find something else to post about later because this is making me ill.

Most of the opinion pieces I have read till now have seemed more neutral or supportive of the deals. ‘Israel must bring it’s sons home at any price’, has been the drumbeat. Well, it appears that some doubts are arising over whether the public really stands to benefit from the proposed swaps as they stand or if they hurt Israel’s standing for the future should there be again a need for negotiations of this nature.

Read here and here

This is the kind of stuff you hate being right about, but if Israel is held to the will of these families and make a terrible deal (again), it will only encourage future bad deals as a result of more kidnappings.

There is an apparent push by the IDF Chief Rabbi to declare the soldiers missing in action and dead. Why this comes up right now seems to be a mystery as there has been plenty of time to do so beforehand. My guess? Israel didn’t want to prejudice the negotiations with Hizbullah and set the bar too low in terms of what Nasrallah would ask as his price for their return. At least if they gave Nasrallah hope, Israel might have hope to regain their stolen sons.

But, in the entire time since the kidnapping and the war, there has been ZERO sign of life from Regev or Goldwasser. Not a peep. No letters. No videotapes. No Red Cross visits. Nothing. Unless everyone is keeping their lips glued for the sake of this ‘deal’, there is no reason to believe they are alive. They were mortally injured upon their capture, so there is no reason to assume they got medical care immediately. Hamas may be similar scum, but at least they occasionally pass some signs of life regarding Shalit so there is reason to think about giving them what they want. This latest musing about declaring them dead is a pressure tactic to get Hizbullah to show something of value or get less in return. Why give Kuntar back for a box of bones?

With all due respect to the Goldwasser and Regev family, soldiers get lost in war. War is never fair and never without pain. But the asking price for their likely dead sons is too high and Israel should not pay such steep prices so as to encourage further kidnappings. There is a law of diminishing returns here and Israel has to look out for the rest of it’s soldiers and citizens who haven’t been kidnapped and not make deals that encourage future snatchings. Not leaving a solider on the field is a noble sentiment, but in practice it’s unrealistic. All soldiers go into battle knowing they may not come back alive. Some don’t come back at all. It’s just the way of things. Maybe someday when there is actual peace (in the year 9000) everyone can trade back everyones remains. Today isn’t that day.

If the soldiers are alive, I will be among those celebrating their return, even for a scumbag like Kuntar. But whoever is pulling this tactic to pressure Hizullah is smart. Nasrallah needs Kuntar back for PR reasons, so Israel twisting his arm a little bit is smart. Get him to pony up live soldiers or risk having the deal fail and Kuntar still rotting in jail. I’m OK with that.